Gates in Kabul, cautions against over-optimism

By Phil Stewart

KABUL (Reuters) - Defense Secretary Robert Gates cautioned against over-optimism despite "bits and pieces of good news" from Afghanistan, warning of hard days ahead as he arrived on Monday to meet generals and President Hamid Karzai.

Hours after Gates arrived, militants demonstrated their growing ability to strike inside Afghan cities, with gunmen launching a commando-style raid in the town of Khost near the Pakistani border in the southeast.

A Reuters reporter heard a blast and gunfire, and saw smoke rising from the center of town. An Afghan army general said two fighters were surrounded.

The Taliban have increasingly used the tactic of commando-style raids, with bombers and gunmen storming government buildings across southern and eastern towns and in Kabul.

Gates, on his first Afghan trip since President Barack Obama's surge of 30,000 forces began arriving in the country last December, said NATO forces had recently made gains, including a push to take control of the Taliban stronghold of Marjah.

But he cautioned against reading too much into "bits and pieces of good news" on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border and said it was too soon to say whether the momentum in the more than 8-year-old conflict had finally shifted.

"I don't think we should lean too far forward in reading too much into specific, positive developments," he told reporters before his arrival.

"The early signs are encouraging. But I worry that people will get too impatient and think things are better than they actually are. There are still some tough times ahead."

Controlling expectations will be critical for Washington and its allies to maintain support for a war in which military casualties and costs are rising. Obama has said U.S. forces will begin to draw down in July 2011, although officials stress a military role will continue beyond that date.

Gates said he would seek an update on the Marjah operation --- billed as the biggest offensive since U.S.-backed Afghan forces toppled the Taliban in 2001 -- from Karzai and General Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan.

He would also seek details from McChrystal about his vision for future operations to get full control of Kandahar, the Taliban's spiritual home and McChrystal's avowed next target.

McChrystal told reporters that troops would gradually mass over the next few months in Kandahar to reassert full control over the area, but he does not plan a single, abrupt massive assault like the one on Marjah last month.

"Militarily it will not look much like Marjah," McChrystal said. "There won't be a D-Day that is climactic. It will be a rising tide of security as it comes."

"Slightly ahead of that there needs to be a lot of preparatory work in terms of governance," he added.

IRAN, RECONCILIATION

Gates said he would also hear from Karzai about his plans to pursue Taliban reintegration and reconciliation. He has expressed hope for defections at low levels, but voiced renewed skepticism that senior Taliban leaders would be ready to lay down their arms as long as they thought they could still win the war.

"My guess is they're not at that point yet," Gates said.

"I think that more needs to be done. After all, we only have got about 6,000 of the 30,000 troops from the surge into Afghanistan at this point," he said.

Gates' visit might overlap with one by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Iranian media had announced Ahmadinejad would visit Kabul on Monday, but the trip appeared to have been postponed, possibly until later in the week. Iranian and Afghan officials declined to comment on it.

Gates reiterated his concerns that Tehran was playing a "double game" in Afghanistan, being friendly to the Afghan government while looking to undermine the United States.

"They do not want us to be successful," Gates said.

Still, he said the level of Iranian support to insurgents was still "relatively low" and acknowledged Tehran "could do a lot more" against U.S. interests in Afghanistan if it wanted to.

(Additional reporting by Ilyas Wahdat in Khost; Editing by Chris Allbritton)